DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/29 11:29
All Grains Down at Midday
Grain trade is lower across the board at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow down 6. The interest
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 15 higher. Energies are mixed with
crude oil down $1.00. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with
gold down $4.
Corn trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with selling picking up after the
open of the pit trade. The weather forecast remains mostly dry and cool
limiting concerns for now, and an uptick in moisture showing in the extended
run. The USDA announced 147,000 metric tons of corn sold to Colombia for new
crop. Ethanol margins remain good with producers able to lock in good margins
for an extended period of time. The weekly crop progress report showed a slight
decline with 75% rated good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor. Silking was
rated at 78% vs. 75% on average, with 17% in the dough vs. 16% on average.
Chart support with remain the recent low at $3.64, with the 10-day moving
average at $3.75 first resistance which we are just below this morning. Moving
through the gap at $3.78 will be the key to opening up trade for a bigger move
in the near term.
Soybean trade is 10 to 15 cents lower at midday with the extended forecast
easing concerns this morning. Meal is $3 to $4 lower and oil is 25 to 35 points
lower. For the bulk of the belt, soybeans look to be entering the reproductive
phase with mostly dry weather, but temperatures remain below normal. The USDA
announced 135,000 metric tons of meal and cake sold to an unknown destination.
The weekly crop progress report showed a slight decline with 71% rated good to
excellent and 6% poor to very poor. Blooming was rated at 76% vs. 72% on
average, and 38% were setting pods vs. 31% on average. On the November chart,
support is the gap left Sunday at $10.90, with resistance the 20-day moving
average at $10.98, and then the recent high at $11.16.
Wheat trade is 10 to 14 cents lower across the three exchanges with the
firmer dollar and weak demand encouraging additional selling. Trade remains
heavily oversold, but we are still lacking a spark to encourage buying. The
weekly crop progress report rated winter wheat at 83% harvested. Spring wheat
conditions were unchanged at 70% good to excellent, 5% poor to very poor, and
93% headed in line with the five-year average. On the chart, trade has faded
away the 10-day moving averages for Chicago and Kansas City wheat at $5.34 and
$6.29 respectively, with the $5 and $6 areas acting as support.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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