DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/24 11:20
All Grains Lower at Midday
Trade is lower across the board at midday led by wheat even with support
from a lower dollar.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow index up 17. The
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 40 points lower. Energies
are mixed with crude down $0.80. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious
metals are mixed with gold down $18.
Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade finding new lows for
the move. The more open weather forecast and demand concerns are promoting
selling at midday. Ethanol margins should continue to improve a bit in the near
term with firmer unleaded gasoline prices boosting blender margins and driving
picking up as we get closer to summer. The ongoing weather pattern looks to
allow for more planting next week with warmer and drier weather before showers
return in the extended forecast. Basis should stay sideways to firmer with soft
futures trade and ongoing fieldwork in many areas. The USDA announced 121,400
metric tons of corn sold to unknown. On the May chart we put in a new low at
$3.63 which is support. December futures have put in a new low at $3.87 1/2.
These are support with the previous low, at $3.92 resistance for this
Soybean trade is 7 to 11 cents lower at midday with meal $3 to $4 lower and
bean oil 10 to 20 points lower. There is still talk of logistic disruptions in
South America via strikes, but concern is limited today. Planting in the US
will likely get under way soon. Soymeal continues to hold the near term inverse
on the front months, with some demand concerns tied to the bird flu. The firmer
crude trade should help support bean oil further if the recent move can be
sustained. On the chart, May beans have support at the 10-day and 20-day at
$9.69, with resistance at the $9.84 50-day, which we are just below.
Wheat trade is 8 to 11 cents lower at midday with selling tied to row crop
weakness, and demand concerns. The dollar is weaker, but the trade is not
finding any buying tied to that. The southern plains look quite a bit drier
over the next two weeks. Other world winter wheat areas are pretty quiet right
now. The May KC contract has chart resistance at the 10-day moving average at
$5.15, and support at the low printed last week just above $5.05 1/4.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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