DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/31 10:55
Corn, Bean Futures Modestly Higher Ahead of Reports
Corn and bean futures are a few cents higher and near the daily high, just
ahead of the USDA report release.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
U.S. stock market indices are lower at midday with Dow futures down 80
points. Interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 45 points higher.
Energies are lower with crude down $.70. Livestock trade is mostly higher.
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $1.
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher in quiet midday trade ahead of the USDA
reports. The USDA numbers due out at 11 a.m. CDT will be the focus of the
market today, and potentially the balance of the week if there is a big
reaction. If no surprises, then we should be focused on planting weather. The
average trade guess for the March Planting Intentions report is 88.7 million
acres with a range of 87 million to 89.75 million versus 90.6 million last
year. The USDA March 1 Quarterly Stocks average trade estimate is 7.610 billion
bushels with a range of 7.46 billion to 7.8 billion versus 7.008 billion a year
ago. This is typically one of the biggest report days of the year, but the
larger supplies do not have many looking for big market action Wednesday. May
contract chart support is at $3.87, the 20-day with resistance at $4. New-crop
trade continues to chop around the new-crop insurance average of $4.15.
Soybean futures are a penny higher in quiet midday trade ahead of the USDA
report, with meal $2 to $3 higher and oil 20 to 30 points lower. The
anticipation of larger soybean acres has limited upside in recent days, along
with good progress in South America on harvest and crop development. Lower
prices in general could lose major crop acreage overall, which is why even
confident bears respect possible fundamental news changes on USDA major report
dates. Average trade guess for USDA March Planting Intentions is at 85.9
million acres with a range of 83 million to 88 million versus 83.7 million a
year ago. Soybean quarterly stocks are expected to be at 1.345 billion with a
range of 1.273 billion to 1.4 billion versus 994 million a year ago. The May
10-day moving average at $9.71 is nearby resistance going into the report, with
$9.55 as support.
Wheat futures are 4 to 8 cents lower at midday with the sharply stronger
dollar taking away some of the gains from Monday. Weather concerns will become
a more pressing issue with warmer, drier conditions expected for much of the
Southern Plains. On the KC May chart we have support at the 20-day moving
average at $5.46, and resistance at recent highs of $5.79. Average trade guess
for the all-wheat planted number is at 55.8 million acres with a range of 54.9
million to 56.8 million versus 56.82 million acres a year ago. The March 1
wheat stocks are expected to be at 1.14 billion versus 1.057 billion a year
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne
and a registered Trading Adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
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