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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/29 11:15

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Grain trade is lower across the board going into the long weekend in slow 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 15. The interest 
rate products are lower. The dollar index is 12 higher and near the recently 
printed yearly high. Energies are higher with crude up .60. Livestock trade is 
mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $2. 


   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with December about a nickel from 
the contract low at $3.58. The stronger dollar, lack of bigger export business 
and improved forecasts are noted for the lower day. This is a long holiday 
weekend coming up and month end, so a combination of long liquidation and short 
profit taking could give us choppy action this afternoon. Ethanol margins 
remain strong and most expect ethanol usage to remain high or near full 
capacity albeit some routine shutdowns could limit production slightly over the 
next 30 days.  The market has expectations of a big crop so end users have 
stayed fairly hand-to-mouth. On the December chart, the 10-day and 20-day 
moving averages server as resistance at $3.69 with support at the $3.58 low.  


   Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with trend selling and limited 
fresh supportive news ahead of the upcoming expected record harvest. November 
beans are a few pennies above the contract low printed this week just below 
$10.20. September beans have been actively mixed with first notice day; they 
are just over a nickel higher at midday. Meal is flat to $1 higher and bean oil 
is 55 to 65 points lower. Processor margins and interest remain strong with 
very strong basis offers at processors. The weather forecast remains good for 
the developing crop with more finishing rain on the way but some areas may be 
seeing excessive amounts. Sudden death syndrome has been reported this week, 
and trade will continue to watch for further reports as well as additional 
disease issues with the wetter forecast. November soybean chart support remains 
at the $10.20 low printed Tuesday and resistance is at the 10-day at $10.37, 
then the 20-day at $10.52.


   Wheat trade is 4 to 10 cents lower at midday with selling in the Chicago 
trade the weakest due to limited fresh news and spillover pressure from the row 
crops. The strong dollar will continue to be a limiting factor with values 
moving into new highs again this morning but an escalating Ukrainian crisis 
would trump the dollar fairly quickly. Quality concerns for the higher-protein 
classes will linger with rains in the U.S. sapping quality here and reducing 
the availability of quality milling wheat. Spring wheat harvest should be 
making progress again in the US., December Kansas City wheat is above the 
10-day and 20-day moving averages at $6.37, and $6.39, with resistance at $6.71 
on further gains. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Advisor. He can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


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